Merz vows to stay on as CDU collapses in two key states
According to BBC News, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he will not step down even though exit polls show his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) slipping below the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and trailing in Berlin. The results turn the recent local elections into a clear warning sign for the centre‑right party and put the government’s reform programme in doubt.
The numbers that sparked the alarm
State broadcasters ZDF and ARD projected the following vote shares when the polls closed at 18:00 local time:
| State | CDU | AfD | SPD | Die Linke |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern | <5% (below threshold) | 38% | 36% | – |
| Berlin | 20% | 16% | – | 26% |
In Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern the CDU’s dip below the 5% barrier means it will lose all seats in that parliament – a first for the party in any German state. In Berlin the CDU is projected to finish second to Die Linke, a party that has never topped polls in the capital. The AfD, classified by parts of Germany’s domestic intelligence as right‑wing extremist, is projected to claim the largest share in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and to increase its share in Berlin.
Why the CDU is in trouble
The latest setbacks follow a pattern that began two weeks earlier in Saxony‑Anhalt, where the AfD’s surge cut the CDU’s vote share roughly in half. The party’s slide is not just a reaction to local issues; it reflects a broader shift in the former East German states where the AfD’s anti‑immigration, German‑first, and Russian‑friendly stance resonates with voters who feel left behind by the post‑reunification economy.
Merz, a former corporate lawyer, moved the CDU to the right on immigration in an attempt to win back voters from the AfD. The strategy has not succeeded in shrinking the far‑right’s base, and it has alienated moderate and left‑leaning voters who see the CDU as abandoning its centrist tradition. As a result, the party is squeezed between a rising AfD on the right and a more cohesive centre‑left bloc that includes the SPD and Die Linke.
The reform agenda stalls while the far‑right gains ground
Merz’s public promise to push through a package of economic, tax and welfare reforms now faces two practical hurdles. First, the CDU’s loss of parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern removes a key platform for testing and promoting those reforms at the state level. Second, the AfD’s strong performance, while unlikely to translate into a governing coalition because other parties refuse to work with it, gives the far‑right a louder voice in regional debates and a larger share of media attention.
The trade‑off here is clear: staying in power allows Merz to keep the federal coalition intact, but it also means governing without a clear electoral mandate and with a weakened party base. In practice this usually means the government will have to negotiate reforms more cautiously, relying on compromises that may dilute the original proposals. Meanwhile, the AfD’s rise puts pressure on the opposition to adopt tougher rhetoric on immigration and security, potentially shifting the national conversation further to the right.
What to watch in the coming weeks
- Final official results – The exit polls are provisional; the definitive numbers will confirm whether the CDU is truly below 5% in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern.
- Coalition negotiations – If the CDU loses its state‑level foothold, the federal coalition may need to allocate more political capital to keep its reform agenda alive.
- Response from state premiers – Eight state premiers have already voiced support for Merz. Their public statements in the next few days will indicate whether that backing translates into concrete political manoeuvring.
- AfD’s parliamentary strategy – Although the party is unlikely to join a governing coalition, it will aim to maximise its influence through committee work and public campaigns.
- Public opinion polls – Merz’s personal approval rating is low. A sustained dip could revive talk of a “chancellor swap” before the next federal election.
Practical steps for readers
If you follow German politics, keep an eye on the official election results published by the Federal Returning Officer. Subscribe to a reliable news outlet that provides daily updates on coalition talks and policy proposals. For those concerned about the AfD’s growth, consider supporting civil‑society organisations that monitor extremist activity and promote democratic education. Finally, if you are a stakeholder in sectors affected by the pending reforms, reach out to your industry association now to learn how the government’s weakened position might alter timelines or funding.
